Analyst house TrendForce says the global NAND flash industry recorded a 2 percent quarter-on-quarter decline in bit shipments in the third quarter of 2024. But a 7 percent rise in ASP (average selling price) boosted overall revenue to $17.6 billion, generating a 4.8 percent quarter-on-quarter increase.
TrendForce said NAND flash pricing trends diverged across application segments in the third quarter. Strong enterprise SSD demand drove a nearly 15 percent increase in ASP, while client SSD prices saw only modest growth amid declining orders.
It added that smartphone NAND flash products faced reduced orders as Chinese smartphone brands adhered to low-inventory strategies, keeping contract prices largely flat compared to the previous quarter. Meanwhile, wafer contract prices reversed and began declining due to weak retail market demand.
Looking ahead to 4Q24, the NAND flash industry is expected to face “more significant challenges,” said the analyst. Although enterprise SSD prices are projected to remain stable, contract prices for other product categories have begun to decline. Additionally, consumer brands are expected to lower inventory levels by year-end, weakening overall demand.
TrendForce predicts that overall NAND flash industry revenue will decline by nearly 10 percent quarter-on-quarter in 4Q24.
In the third quarter, Samsung retained its top position in revenue ranking. Strong enterprise SSD demand in North America offset declines in smartphone product shipments, resulting in a 5 percent drop in bit shipments. However, higher ASP helped maintain its revenue at $6.2 billion, similar to 2Q24 levels.
For 4Q24, Samsung’s NAND flash revenue is expected to experience a “slight decline” due to weaker order momentum, the analyst said.
SK Group (including SK hynix and Solidigm) ranked second in third-quarter revenue. Despite weak smartphone and PC demand leading to a 15 percent drop in bit shipments, strong performance in enterprise SSDs “significantly bolstered” profitability. TrendForce projects that while enterprise SSD price growth will be moderate in 4Q24, stable shipments will help SK Group “maintain flat revenue.”
Kioxia secured third place in revenue, followed by Micron and Western Digital/SanDisk (WDC). Kioxia benefited from the seasonal peak in US smartphone production, and increased enterprise SSD shipments, leading to a 9 percent rise in bit shipments, and growth in both ASP and revenue. However, with the smartphone production peak ending in 4Q24, Kioxia’s revenue is expected to drop “by over 10 percent.”
Micron achieved a 10 percent quarter-on-quarter increase in bit shipments across all product lines, with revenue rising 26.6 percent quarter-on-quarter to $2.51 billion, driven by higher ASP. However, broader product shipment declines – excluding enterprise SSDs – may lead to a “slight revenue dip” in 4Q24, said TrendForce.
WDC recorded a 15 percent quarter-on-quarter increase in bit shipments that exceeded expectations. However, a higher share of low-end products in its mix negatively impacted ASP, limiting revenue growth to just 7 percent, the analyst said.
