Interviews

posted on 17 July 2008 15:07

Blocks and Files talked to Seagate's Corporate Communications Manager in EMEA, Ian O'Leary, about the company's hard disk drive (HDD) and solid state drive (SSD) plans. The answers show that Seagate foresees another three perpendicular recording generations, 2.5-inch disk drives gradually taking over from 3.5-inch ones, and an enterprise storage array SSD market entry:-

Blocks and Files: Could you discuss perpendicular recording generations and any likely transition to a follow-on technology?

Ian O'Leary: Seagate has recently announced its fourth generation of perpendicular recording technology used within its latest Momentus family of notebook drives and Barracuda desktop-class drives. Perpendicular recording technology is expected to be extendable to about 1Tbit-per-square inch area density before additional follow-on technologies will be required.

Blocks and Files: What is the follow-on technology ... HAMR, bit-patterned recording, or something else?

Ian O'Leary: There are a number of possible technologies that will follow perpendicular. HAMR is certainly one that continues to be a possibility. We view BPM as coming a bit later after HAMR. Another that is being worked on is called Discrete Track Recording (DTR). The idea is to pattern concentric rings around the disc – “pattern the track” if you will. The recording is accomplished using a head, but in a crosstrack direction – so this helps with track densities.

Blocks and Files: How is the 2.5-inch transition from 3.5-inch drives progressing?

Ian O'Leary: We see the changeover occurring in the enterprise segment aggressively as major OEMs have supported and made the transition to use of enterprise-class 2.5-inch drives for servers, and are beginning to deploy them for storage arrays now as well since the capacities are ideal.

Blocks and Files: When is the unit ship cross over?

Ian O'Leary: IDC has stated that they believe the transition where 2.5-inch enterprise will outsell 3.5-inch will occur by 2010.

Blocks and Files: What does Seagate think of 20,000rpm drive technology?

Ian O'Leary: The challenge with increasing rpm speeds is dealing with the issues of power consumption and heat. Seagate met this challenge previously when introducing the industry’s first 15K-rpm drive in 2000 by using smaller diameter platters, which resulted in less mass being required for the motor to spin, therefore less power was required. The tradeoff was a reduction in capacity. With today’s even greater emphasis on lowering power-consumption, for the highest-performance requirements for Tier 0 storage where a 20K-rpm drive may fit, this segment may also be served either with 15K-rpm 2.5-inch small form factor enterprise storage, or with an SLC-based SSD device. Seagate continues to explore all options based on the needs of its customers.

Blocks and Files: SAS II at 6Gbit/s - will Seagate build SAS II interface drives?

Ian O'Leary: Yes, our first product will be the Savvio 10K.3 300GB 2.5-inch enterprise-class drive.

Blocks and Files: When?

Ian O'Leary: We expect versions with 6Gb SAS capabilities will be available during the first half of next year, with 3Gb SAS versions of the same drive shipping before the end of this year.

Blocks and Files: Will SAS II controllers be backwards-compatible with SAS I and SATA II drives?

Ian O'Leary: Yes

Blocks and Files: Could I have an update on Seagate's solid state drive (SSD) progress please?

Ian O'Leary: Seagate has internal resources dedicated to SSD development and continues to prepare entry in the marketplace planned for 2009.

Blocks and Files: Which customer markets will be targeted?

Ian O'Leary: Enterprise applications for Tier 0 storage, where the highest transactional performance requirements are needed, will be the first primary targets.

Blocks and Files: What interfaces will be used - PATA, SATA, uSATA, FC?

Ian O'Leary: Serial Attached SCSI and FC are the two interfaces that have the highest performance capability, so these are the two that are targeted.

Blocks and Files: What will be the position with regard to single level cell and multi-level cell technology?

Ian O'Leary: We are examining the position and much depends on how the technology improves as it is developed. Today, there is considerable confusion in the marketplace on descriptions of performance and endurance of SSDs - creating situations where the wrong product was used in an application and ultimately does not meet the needs and expectations of the end user.  There are also many technologies that can be used to create SSDs, including MLC and SLC, and each has different performance and reliability characteristics. The SSD industry needs to align around defining classes of best-fit applications for SSDs – enterprise vs. notebook for example so that IT architects can make better informed decisions about performance and endurance.

Commentary

Perpendicular recording (PR) going out to 1Tbit/sq in suggests three more generations of it: 5; 6; and 7. Toshiba is currently at 308GBit/sq in with its 400GB 2.5-inch drive. Let's assume Seagate and Toshiba rough (!) area density equality plus 200/250GBit/sq in steps and that gives us forthcoming levels of 2.5-inch drives from Seagate of 500GB, which the company says it will ship be Christmas, then 750GB and, ultimately 1TB.

At the 3.5-inch drive level where Seagate has a 3-platter 1TB drive and 4-platter 1.5TB drive we might also assume three more PR generations and start at 375GB/platter - the 1.5TB, 4-platter drive - and extrapolate out roughly as 1.5TB, 3TB and, ultimately 5TB.

This concurs with expectations set by Hitachi GST.

The SSD marketing focus of enterprise hard drive arrays concurs with Seagate's expectation of no material effect on its earnings from SSD shipments in 2009. Compared against a 50 million or so HDD unit shipmernt level the SSD numbers will be relatively insignificant, in the tens of thousands perhaps, possibly the hundreds of thousands. The SAS and FC interface focus fits in with the enterprise storage array market.

The possibility of 20,000rpm drives coming to market seems remote as SSDs will likely fill the performance tier such fast HDDs would be aimed at.

The dominance of 2.5-inch drives over 3.5-inch ones seems pretty concrete although comparative power usage may favour 3.5-inch capacity drives for bulk online data storage where access doesn't have to be speedy, at least until 2.5-inch drives start reaching 750GB/1TB levels.

^{[Chris Mellor.]}